drbeeper

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Run-scoring frequencies

&nbsp 0 outs 0 % 1 out 1 % 2 outs 2 % &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
1st base 37-57 64.9 40-80 50.0 26-94 27.7 &nbsp 103-231 44.6
2nd base 21-26 80.8 33-46 71.7 27-59 45.8 &nbsp 81-131 61.8
3rd base 17-18 94.4 21-24 87.5 14-27 51.9 &nbsp 52-69 75.4
&nbsp 75-101 74.3 94-150 62.7 67-180 37.2 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp

This table represents the percentage of time a runner on base scores a run, grouped by number of outs.
i.e:

  • There has been a runner on 2nd with 1 out a total of 25 times. 20 times that runner has scored a run.
  • If you are on 1st base with 1 out, you will score a run 51.9% of the time
  • Runners on 3rd base score a cumulative 78.1% of the time
  • With 2 out, you are twice as likely to score from 2nd (47.4%) as from 1st (24.7%); etc.

    NOTES:
    the percentages reflect that the runner will eventually score in that inning
    runner positions are independent of any other base runners.
    HR’s are not credited with being ‘on-base’
    LOB cannot be accurately derived from this table. (runners can be double-counted)